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we are experiencing a new oil crisis triggered by a global oil supply glut.

history, there have been three worldwide oil crises, which led to a serious imbalance between global oil supply and demand, a sharp rise and fall in oil prices, and a slowdown in world economic growth. Especially in the third oil crisis, the long-term low oil price has also become one of the causes of the decline of oil revenue in the former Soviet Union, the government's living beyond its means, and the disintegration of the country.

world oil crisis is an international event triggered by oil and spread to the world economy and politics. we think: at present, a new round of oil crisis is taking shape and will sweep across the globe.

is mainly characterized by four basic characteristics: oversupply of production, plummeting international oil prices, serious damage to the oil industry chain, and world economic recession.

01Oversupply

before the crisis.2019, global oil surplus capacity has been high.up1000millionBarrel/days, accounting for a high proportion of oil consumption in that yearup8%, far beyondout3%-5%. The new crown epidemic has led to a global quarantine mode, and the world economy has been pressed."PauseKey", a historic shock to oil demand,3Month Demand Reduction1050millionBarrel/Day,4months continue to reduce1870millionBarrel/day, drop1995years. The scale of the contraction in demand caused by the outbreak has reached.2500million-3500millionBarrel/Day,"OPEC+"agreement to cut production is difficult to offset the shrinking demand, and the imbalance between supply and demand is increasing.

02oil prices plunge

new crown epidemicsentiment1month erupted in Wuhan,2month spread to Japan and South Korea,3months, there have been outbreaks in Europe and the United States..3month6Day,"OPEC+"cut-off deal breaks down,3month9dayfall.30%.in3month next.3week, international oil prices were intertwined with the stock market,3month has fallen to everyBarrel23.3month30day, the breakdown of the Russia-Saudi Arabia production reduction alliance negotiations became the last straw that overwhelmed oil prices, and oil prices continued to fall.19.93beautyyuan/barrels,18years.4month9Day,"OPEC+"reached everyDay970million barrels of production cuts are still far from offsetting the recent contraction in market demand, and investment banks are pessimistic about the newly reached agreement. Record production cuts fail to stop oil prices falling, falling after brief opening jump,4month20day, with Brent falling to everyBarrel18.10,2001year12months.

03hits oil industry

the spread of the global epidemic has led to a reduction in oil demand and a collapse in prices, putting tremendous pressure on upstream production, many oil companies have announced significant cuts in investment plans.meter2020.over25%. The most affected is the construction of new projects, especiallyisLNGproject. Premeter2020years worldwidehave1300billion in new oil and gas projects has been delayed. Large quantities of crude oil have no way to sell, and global oil storage capacity is in short supply. Refiners are facing product sales difficulties, and some companies even lose money. Refiners from Asia, the United States and Europe have begun to reduce production, and some refineries have closed to alleviate the oversupply situation.

, a mirror of the global oil and gas industry, is the most affected. These companies in the next two yearshave140billion in debt due,2024years agohave860billion of debt matures, its62%is junk debt. Some highly leveraged companies will be forced to sell assets, accept harsh borrowing terms from hedge funds, or seek financial lifelines through mergers; some are already in financial trouble and on the verge of bankruptcy. The Whiting Oil Company of the United States filed for bankruptcy protection and reached a settlement with its creditors,22billion in debt swapsfetching97%.

oil companies was quickly transmitted to service companies, and the calls for service companies to reduce service prices were wave after wave. Exxon Mobil, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, Oman Petroleum Development Company and other companies have asked oil service contractors to cut costs and adjust contract terms. Several oilfield service providers forced to implement layoff plans, Norwegian Energy ConsultingDivisionRystad Energyexpects global oilfield service providers to cut superover100million jobs. The biggest impact is the U.S. shale oil industry, where U.S. oil service companies will face huge debt or even bankruptcy, and Pioneer Energy Services, a large U.S. oil service company, has launched bankruptcy protection proceedings. In addition, some engineering and technical service enterprises are faced with the harsh situation of cooking without rice and begin to save themselves. Schlumberger and Halliburton, the two oil service giants, have joined the ranks of capital spending cuts, planning to cut their respectiveminus30%and60%.

04world recession

in the current situation of serious oversupply of oil and pessimism about the implementation of the new production reduction agreement, the oil crisis will intensify, and it is expected that international oil prices will be maintained for a long time.hold40beautyyuan/barrels, it will take a long time for the oil industry to recover..IMFPremeter2020shrink3%, is the world.Ji30years, the next two years.BallGDPmay be9trillion dollars, more than the Japanese and German economies combined.

the impact of this crisis will be long-term, and the world will enter a new period of low oil prices. Given that the oil crisis is the result of a serious oil supply imbalance and geopolitical intertwining, international oil prices will remain low for a long time even if the global epidemic is brought under control and the oil industry recovers.